Showing posts with label 2008 US election live. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 US election live. Show all posts

05 November 2008

Obama's victory speech

His groupies in rapture, he talked of family, thanked McCain for his concession. He talked of the campaign made of millions who helped him get elected. It is "their victory".

He talked of a "planet in peril"
He talks of harnessing new energy, building new schools, alliances to repair.
"We will get there" (wherever that is).
The government can't solve every problem
Need a new spirit of service and sacrifice.
Republican Party believed in individual liberty, values we all share.
New dawn of American leadership is at hand.
Those who seek peace and security we support you.
Those who seek to tear down the world we will defeat you.
Our Union can be perfected.
Unyielding hope.

It all sounded nice, he sounds inspiring.

However, what does it really mean?

"Hi, I'm from the government and I'm here to help".

and people believe it.

Other US results

Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr came fourth, with 347,161 votes at 0438 GMT
Ralph Nader third with 421,978 votes.

Other states?
Arizona - McCain 10 electoral votes
South Dakota - McCain 3 electoral votes
Nebraska - proportional McCain 3, Obama 2
Colorado - Obama 9 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Florida - Obama 27 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Nevada - Obama 5 electoral votes (a change from 2004)
Hawaii - Obama 4 electoral votes

338 Obama to 155 McCain

A convincing win for Obama.

Ballot measures:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage - 56% yes (74% counted)
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants - 60% no (74% counted)
Colorado - Human life from moment of conception - 74% no (37% counted)
Maryland - Allow video lottery - 59% yes (67% counted)
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax - 69% no (79% counted)
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana - 63% yes (50% counted)
Nebraska - End affirmative action - 57% yes (55% counted)

0401 GMT: Obama over the threshold

Yep with California, Washington and Oregon all predicted to go to Obama, through exit polls, it is 297 for Obama. McCain picked up Idaho with 4 to go to 139.

Millions are celebrating.

Now will he make it a landslide through the undecided seats?

0359 GMT: The waiting continues

Yes it is literally all over, bar the counting, but Obama still isn't over the hurdle. Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida remain too close to call. That is the difference between the landslide and just victory.

McCain has virtually no chance to recover, but he could make it a close race.

Since 0330 GMT Virginia has gone to Obama with 13 projected.
Obama 220
McCain 135

Senate - D 52, R 38, independents (pro D) 2
House - D 171 R 111 (9 R>D)

Popular vote - 51% Obama, 48% McCain. At least that is showing a decent gap.

0330 GMT: Still no landslide

Iowa for Obama with 7 electoral votes is another switch from the Republicans in 2004, no doubt because Obama backed agricultural subsidies!

Texas, Mississippi, Kansas, Arkansas, Utah for McCain with 34, 6,6,6 and 5 respectively. All solid Republican states.

Popular vote is still 49% McCain, 50% Obama. Again, hardly a landslide.

Obama 207
McCain 135

Senate- 52 D, 36 R, 2 independents for Democrats (4 go from R to D)
House- 149 D, 91 R (218 for majority) (9 go from R to D)

Obama should win, given projections for Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa for him. However, I didn't think I'd need to be waiting up this long to get the result.

It remains painfully close in many states.

0300 GMT - Obama on the cusp of victory

Obama now adds Ohio, New Mexico as projected wins, 20 and 5 respectively to hit 199. However, both are still with less than half the vote counted. However, if it goes through these are the first two states to fall from the Republicans, should mean an Obama victory.

McCain adds Louisiana with 9 to hit 78

Senate - projected 50 Democrat, 36 Republican, 2 independents (pro Democrat). Democrats will be happy.
House - projected 103 Democrat, 68 Republican. Long way to go yet.

The only ballot declared so far is Massachusetts - on abolishing state income tax - 69% no, with 44% declared.

0230 GMT - McCain needs Florida and Ohio

McCain must be worried about North Carolina, which remains slightly ahead for Obama with 39% of the vote. Ohio, Virginia and Indiana are too close to call. McCain needs them all.

CNN says:

Obama 174
McCain 69

Obama has:
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania.

McCain has:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota.

BBC is calling Ohio for Obama, which if true will be the breaking point for McCain.

Post 0200 GMT results preliminary from BBC

Michigan Obama 17 electoral votes
Minnesota Obama 10 electoral votes
Wisconsin Obama 10 electoral votes
New York Obama 31 electoral votes
North Dakota McCain 3 electoral votes
Wyoming McCain 3 electoral votes
Rhode Island Obama 4 electoral votes

No change from 2004 - still

CNN saying Obama 174 McCain 49

0159 GMT- On the cusp of the key states

Florida still too close to call, Georgia looks like McCain, along with Arkansas, Alabama and Oklahoma.

Senate - Democrats 47, Republicans 30
House - Democrats 38, Republicans 20

but a barrage of results about to come

No states have changed compared to 2004 yet

I still would put my money on Obama, but one thing is clear:

It's 0145 GMT and not a single state that voted Bush in 2004 has voted Obama this time round.

Far too early to call, but... since last time:
CNN has declared Pennsylvania for Obama
so it IS 102/34

0130 GMT - US election

CNN has Obama at 81, declaring New Hampshire but not Pennsylvania. McCain still at 34.

McCain needs Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. These all remain too close to call.

0115 GMT - US election update

Pennsylvania projected for Obama 21 electoral votes
New Hampshire projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
Illinois projected for Obama 21 electoral votes
DC projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Massachusetts projected for Obama 12 electoral votes
Delaware projected for Obama 3 electoral votes
Tennessee projcted for McCain 11 electoral votes
Maryland projected for Obama 10 electoral votes
Connecticut projected for Obama 7 electoral votes
Oklahoma projectd for McCain 7 electoral votes
Maine projected for Obama 4 electoral votes
New Jersey projected for Obama 15 electoral votes

Obama winning Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are both major blows to McCain who hoped to pick them up. Both went to Kerry in 2004

Fundamentally there have not been any changes in states compared to 2004.

CNN is saying 77 for Obama and 34 for McCain.
BBC is saying 103 for Obama.

The landslide hasn't happened - yet.

0100 GMT - US elections

President - McCain 16 (South Carolina projected to win although Obama is ahead!), Obama 3

Still no change from 2004 election. Too early to say.

Senate - (including uncontested) Democrats 41 Republicans 27. 1 win for the Democrats
House - Democrats 8, Republicans 6

75% turnout reported

Real Clear Politics - real clear coverage

Yes, go here, watch it add up with the proportion of the vote counted, and the proportion for the candidates.

It's easier to use than any of the TV networks.

It's looking closer than many would have thought.

What to watch

States to watch are:
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
South Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Senate- Democrats hold 39 and Republicans 26 that aren't up for grabs. 35 seats up for grabs. 2006 saw the two parties holding 49 each, with 2 independents holding the balance of power. Democrats will be looking to grab 21 seats out of the 35 to get a supermajority. Republicans obviously seeking to grab 25 to keep the Democrats at bay.

House - 435 up for grabs. Democrats won 233 in 2006, Republicans 202.

US ballot measures worth watching

One side of the US elections are state based referenda on many issues. There are few this time compared to recent years. So courtesy of CNN - here they are.

Measures I would support:
California - Parental or guardian notification of abortion sought by a minor
Colorado - End affirmative action
Maryland - Allow video lottery
Massachusetts - Repeal state income tax
Michigan - Allow medical marijuana
Michigan - Allow stem cell research
Nebraska - End affirmative action
South Dakota - Limits on abortion to 20 weeks, and cases of mother's health
Washington - Allow doctor assisted suicide

Measures I would oppose:
Arizona - Ban on gay marriage
Arizona - Ban on hiring illegal immigrants
Arkansas - Ban on gay couples adopting children
California - Ban on gay marriage
Colorado - Human life defined as from moment of conception
Florida - Ban on gay marriage
South Dakota - Limiting abortion to rape/incest and health of the mother

First US results

Kentucky McCain 8 electoral votes
Vermont Obama 3 electoral votes

No change from 2004